Romanian energy project guarantees in 2027–2028: 20%, EUR 30/kW and the real developer exposure

The most dangerous development budget is one that treats every guarantee as a single amount. A Romanian energy project may require separate securities for ATR issuance, extensions of its grid connection agreement, certain permitting deadlines, the ANRE establishment authorisation and, where applicable, the capacity-allocation auction. Each has a different beneficiary, calculation base and call trigger. The practical decision is how much liquidity must be available, in what sequence and subject to which release conditions.

Why does the 20% rule not apply retrospectively to everyone?

Article 31(3^1) of the Connection Regulation, introduced by ANRE Order No. 15/2026, sets the guarantee at 20% of the VAT-exclusive connection tariff for the projects listed under Article 31(1), principally qualifying production, combined consumption-and-production and storage facilities subject to the relevant greater-than-1 MW threshold. Certain consumption-only sites remain governed by the separate 5% rule in Article 31(2)–(3), under its own conditions.

Article V(1) of Order No. 15/2026 preserves the previous treatment where the network operator had already communicated the guarantee amount before 25 May 2026. The date and contents of that communication must be retrieved from the original operator correspondence, rather than inferred from the ATR's issuance date. In an acquisition, that communication is material legal due diligence evidence.

Is an extension guarantee another 5%, or a reset to 20%?

Article 40^1(2)–(6) enables a user to seek successive 12-month extensions of the grid connection agreement against a separate security. It starts at 5% of the VAT-exclusive connection tariff for the first extension and increases by a further 5% of the same base for each successive 12-month period. This is legally distinct from the principal security supporting the original ATR.

There is no general statutory rule that every amendment extending a historical agreement automatically converts its original 5% principal guarantee into a 20% guarantee. That does not remove other applicable contractual or statutory securities for separate obligations. The cash-flow review must identify each actual instrument and its purpose instead of adding percentages without understanding their legal basis.

What does the ANRE EUR 30/kW guarantee secure?

ANRE Order No. 16/2026 inserted Article 19^1 into the authorisation regulation, requiring an EUR 30/kW guarantee calculated by reference to the relevant installed electrical capacity under the ATR and by generation technology. Where the entire 50 MW constitutes the statutory base, the nominal amount is EUR 1.5 million. This is neither an ANRE application fee nor an amount automatically lost when deposited.

Eligible forms include a bank guarantee, a qualifying instrument issued by an insurer or non-bank financial institution, or cash payment, subject to the legal requirements of irrevocability, unconditionality and first-demand payment. The security may be called under Article 19^1(4), including where the project is not completed within the authorisation term or the investor abandons implementation. Its release or return is governed by the statutory process and construction completion acceptance.

What about existing authorisations and hybrid projects?

Articles II–III of Order No. 16/2026 contain exceptions and transitional provisions. These include, where applicable, evidence of a performance guarantee under a contract for difference, certain repowering schemes without increased installed capacity and calculation by reference to the increase in installed power for qualifying hybrid or repowering changes. A “100 MWh BESS” description cannot simply be converted into a 100 MW guarantee base.

For establishment authorisations granted before May 2026, an application for extension filed after the new rules took effect can trigger the new security. The extension's cost is therefore more than an administrative charge: it may include guarantee premiums, collateral and potential call exposure. The actual filing date and legal exception must be reviewed individually.

When can guarantees be called and released?

Article 31(6)–(8) of the Connection Regulation connects calls on the principal grid guarantee to defined failures, including connection-tariff payments, the user installation, development stages and specified authorisation deadlines. Voluntary surrender of the ATR entails the effects stated in Article 33(3). For the ANRE guarantee, Article 19^1 and Article V of Order No. 16/2026 regulate call events and narrowly framed protection where delay was beyond the investor's control and is supported by the required evidence.

Expiry of a guarantee document is not the same as discharge of the secured obligation. When extension is required, the instrument's wording must accommodate the project timetable, demand mechanism and beneficiary requirements. An inexpensive instrument that cannot be extended in time may turn into the project's most expensive financial decision.

How should the guarantee stack appear in a cash-flow model?

Build a Guarantee Exposure Schedule with five essential fields: beneficiary, triggering event, amount and legal calculation base, expiry date and release event. Add the cost of collateral and available banking limits separately. Nominal guarantees do not always mean the same amount of cash is blocked, but they can materially reduce credit headroom and the ability to fund EPC works.

In the auction system, participation security and allocated-capacity payment security are additional layers, not substitutes for grid connection guarantees. For 2027, apply the updated statutory formula in Article 8(4) of the allocation methodology rather than treating the EUR 20,000/MW 2026 reference as a perpetual fixed amount.

Hypothetical example: the investment decision

*Hypothetical example, not a reference to an actual project.*

Consider a hypothetical 50 MW project with a VAT-exclusive connection tariff of EUR 2 million and an ANRE authorisation fully subject to the statutory calculation base. The principal new grid security would be EUR 400,000 and the establishment security EUR 1.5 million. If the project required the user's first 12-month grid agreement extension, a separate EUR 100,000 security could apply. This illustration does not claim that all three amounts become payable simultaneously in every project, or that they are equivalent to money lost.

Developer Action Checklist: what should be checked in the next 30–90 days?

1. Retrieve the operator’s original guarantee-amount communication and test the 25 May 2026 grandfathering rule. 2. Classify each security by provision, beneficiary, formula, tenor and call triggers. 3. Test the actual CfD, hybrid, BESS and repowering exceptions and calculation bases. 4. Obtain bank or insurer pricing, collateral requirements and extension mechanics before commitment. 5. Build a release-and-return calendar and preserve evidence needed to satisfy each release condition.

Conclusion and next steps

For 2027–2028 the relevant question is not simply “how much is the guarantee?” but what maximum simultaneous exposure can this project create and how do we control it? A developer managing several SPVs needs a consolidated guarantee register, not percentages scattered across network-operator correspondence.

Request a project-specific assessment. Grigorescu & Partners can review the key documents and prepare a focused risk, deadline and action report. Discuss a mandate or Email us the project details.

Primary sources and verification date

*Analysis updated on 12 October 2026.*

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Editorial note: For general information, not project-specific legal advice. Applicable rules depend on project history, documents, contracts and subsequent amendments.